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Even 'Dr. Doom' Is Scared: Economy Much Worse Than Roubini Predicted

Posted Mar 02, 2009 01:35pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
Fed Chairman Bernanke raised eyebrows (and, briefly, the market) last week when said there's a "reasonable prospect" the economy will bottom this year and be in recovery in 2010.

But Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett disagrees: The economy "will be in shambles throughout 2009 and...probably well beyond," the Oracle of Omaha declared this weekend.

In sum, Buffett and much of the rest of humanity are just now coming around to Nouriel Robuini's way of thinking, the economist known as "Dr. Doom" is upping the ante on his longstanding bearish views.

A year ago Roubini was forecasting an 18-month recession with a U-shaped recovery; now, he's now expecting the downturn to last at least 24 months and possibly 36-months. He also sees rising risks of a Japanese-style L-shaped stagnation, i.e. a prolonged period with little or no economic growth.

"I was one of most bearish people [but] the economy has surprised the bears on the downside," says Roubini of NYU's Stern School and RGE Monitor. "What's happening in the world now is scary."

Indeed, while the U.S. economy contracted 6.2% in the fourth-quarter, Roubini's main concern is economic activity in much of the rest of the world is in much worse shape. And while he is often critical of U.S. policymakers - including over the stimulus package, Fed policy and bank bailouts - Roubini says "the rest of the world is way behind the curve," in terms of doing the "right things" to confront the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.

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1559 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 01:41PM EST

great! So, when will WWIII start and with whom?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 01:42PM EST

Vitor Hugo said: The future has several names. For the weak, it is the "impossible". or the fainthearted, it is the "unknown". or the thoughtful and valiant, it is a "ideal".

Kelly P
Kelly P - Monday March 02, 2009 01:43PM EST

Its a bad sign when even the bears aren't bearish enough

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 01:45PM EST

Bernanke is an idiot, and all of these so-called advisors to Obama are fools. What did they expect would happen? You throw gasoline on a fire to get the economy buring hot, so every idiot in the United States can own two, three or four homes, a few SUV's and send their kids to college all on credit. What did they expect would happen? It's a Ponzi scheme! The idiots like Bernanke, et. al, would like to have you BELIEVE that this problem was based on a "housing bubble." WRONG! Just like in 1929 it was an ABUSE OF CREDIT. WHo gave all of these people credit? The same idiots that Obama and Bush prior are bailing out. We are FINISHED. This is game over.

E
E - Monday March 02, 2009 01:45PM EST

Obama, Pelosi and Reid will be the end of this country. With their leadership and spending, I am sure we can get the stock market to -0-. January 20th, 2013 - The End of an Error.

Justice
Justice - Monday March 02, 2009 01:45PM EST

Roubini was correct in his initial forecast of 18 months. I can't foresee 36 months of downturn. Cookie Cutter Girl

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 01:47PM EST

This is the beginning of the end. Mad Max, here we come. Bye, bye civilization.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Monday March 02, 2009 01:48PM EST

CRASH CRASH CRASH BUY BUY BUY SELL SELL SELL... Forget the bulls and the bears, the market is now at the call of the mules!!! RUN RUN RUN!!! Black market traders are storing canned goods and medical supplies, guns guns guns...God Bless America!

Jon Lyles
Jon Lyles - Monday March 02, 2009 01:50PM EST

I've had the good fortune of having a broker who believes in the "buy and hold" strategy.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 01:50PM EST

Why should Germany bailout the EuroZone? Other countries made poor choices. Why should Germany bail them out? Why should we bail out AIG for the THIRD time. Will there be a FOURTH? MORE? I'm sick of this an Obama's new direction is just THE SAME OLD S***!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 02:00PM EST

It is what it is ,This is global depression and like dominos it will effect us all ,All data out there is negative ,Housing ,Banks, We need to nationalized the banking system asap not lag with 40 ,60 billion loans and there still failing ,Do what needs to be done ,This stress testing better be quick and if the banks are not working out take over and stop patching a magor injury with a band aid!!

RobertD
RobertD - Monday March 02, 2009 02:00PM EST

The housing "bubble" was just the push that started the chain reaction. The bubble by itself would have caused steep losses but it was the credit default swaps attached to those mortgages that are now bankrupting these banks and financial institutions. Even that is just a part of the problem. The same old goodies are responsible for the rest. Over-extension of credit, fiat currency, socialist style government programs, and a ponzi scheme styled mandatory participation federal retirement program.

The Drill Instructor
The Drill Instructor - Monday March 02, 2009 02:00PM EST

Gold will be the best bet over the next 24 months..

Swen
Swen - Monday March 02, 2009 02:01PM EST

Quote of the Day The late Dr. Adrian Rogers (1931-2005) offered the following observation several years ago and it bears poignant significance today: You cannot legislate the poor into freedom by legislating the rich out of freedom. What one person receives without working for, another person must work for without receiving. The government cannot give to anybody anything the government does not first take from somebody else. When half of the people get the idea that they do not have to work because the other half is going to take care of them, and when the other half gets the idea that it does no good to work because somebody else is going to get what they work for, that my dear friend is about the end of any nation. You cannot multiply the wealth by dividing it."

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 02:01PM EST

Jon Lyles: Better be holding for 40 years! LOL! :-)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 02:01PM EST

hugmonster1968, What will this "recovery" of your in 18 months be based on? What asset class will go up 20 percent per year so everyone will be able to borrow on it? Wages won't be going up. Massive black holes of debt. So, when I want to buy my home, SUV, put in a swimming pool, buy my Harley, how exactly would I do that in 18 months?

tom
tom - Monday March 02, 2009 02:02PM EST

have a drink

Barstow
Barstow - Monday March 02, 2009 02:02PM EST

If you haven't figured out you are being lied to then there is no hope for you. If you voted for this president then you are also hopeless.

Henry
Henry - Monday March 02, 2009 02:03PM EST

Anybody who is not scared is crazy. Fear is an instinct created for our safety. So be scared and be happy! If you do not believe what I say, check out what I mean at www.findthelawyer.com

Neha
Neha - Monday March 02, 2009 02:03PM EST

Roubini caused this recession; it was a self fulfilling prophesy with his endless gloom and doom people heard his predictions and stopped spending to save in the face of the coming recession and guess what, it came! thanks roubini!

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